By Evan D
It’s time for Jason Kidd to pass the torch. I don’t know if he’s even going to get the faux-honor of recognizing an heir apparent and divesting himself of stature. No, it’s going to be just like the rest of the season…Chris Paul is going to rightfully steal that spot at the top of the marquee.
If this game could be Chris Paul against any one player on the Mavericks, I’d have no problem picking the Hornets in a sweep. If I wanted to play the experience card, then I’d have to give the edge to the Mavericks, though they are two seasons removed from a historic Finals collapse and subsequent ouster by the now-defunct Warriors. It’s as if this series is a tabula rasa with two sides: New Orleans is trying to write the first paragraphs of their history, while Dallas is desperate to erase the results of prior season’s disappointment.
The Hornets were a team that surprised many this season, first in their ascent to the top of the West at the All-Star break and more impressively holding that spot until the Lakers drafted and passed to clinch the Conference. The key to this was a mostly injury-free season that allowed Byron Scott to coach his players to success and those players transition to impact veterans. At the same time, it was ultimately necessary for NOLA to become a great first line because their bench needed an entire season to gel on their own. Because of the similar styles of play between the teams, I see the outcome as the direct result of individual match-ups and bench depth.
PG : Kidd/Paul
Nearly every positive action produced by Jason Kidd at this point in his career (besides rebounding), Chris Paul is doing faster, more efficiently and more often. Kidd should attempt to use his size advantage when the Mavericks run the half-court and try to get more ball screens to pull Tyson Chandler from the basket. Every single team in the league has had success with the high screen/roll, few better than NOLA. I’d like to see Dallas try to setup multiple screens to free up Howard/Nowitzki for the roll and pass into the lane.
SG: Terry/Peterson
I’d like to give this to Dallas, just because I’ve seen The Jet play a hell of a lot more than I have Mo Pete. That being said, both guys are scorers, both are looking to get shooting volume off the main scorer(s) and neither plays considerable defense. We’ll see if Pargo or Peterson is the starter, but this spot is a wash.
SF : Howard/Stojakovic
This is a substantial match-up which I would have normally given to Howard, but his season has not impressed me and Peja has improved his overall team game. Howard shouldn’t have too difficult a time guarding straight up, but has to watch out for a lot of passing over the top and recovering on passes around the perimeter. Recently, Peja has received some accolades for staying in front of his man on defense and using his 6’10” frame as a major deterrent. He had been previously known as one of the world’s few Slavic matadors.
PF : Nowitzki/West
I need Dirk to sneer. To think he’s walking around with Sam Cassell’s grapefruit sized balls, Wilt’s track record with the ladies and KG’s desire to win. I need him to get fouled and bark at the defender while he gets up and then demand the ball on the next play. I also need him to guard David West who has setup a spot near the left elbow that no defender has dared tread this season. The guy hits mid range jumpers like Rip Hamilton, but none of the opposing forwards seem to genuinely believe this. Let’s say that Dirk plays some defense, he’s going to walk a very thin line guarding a guy who can go high low at any time and plays off the position of his remaining teammates.
C : Dampier/Chandler
Erick Dampier played a single decent season in Golden State. Mark Cuban (normally a wise businessman), gave him upwards of $70M to give that exact same effort for the duration of a brand new contract. This has not yet happened. This is likely not going to happen for the start of the playoffs. He is not Bob Horry of years past who could turn on the juice when the regular season was over and become a late-game assassin. He is 7 feet of good athlete and moderately good basketball player and is set to contend against another man of equal height. Tyson Chandler is a good basketball player who has become much better this year, proving that no one is going to succeed in Chicago for the time being. If the game is harkening back to it’s ascent during the early 80s, then it’s going to take Dampier brutalizing Chandler to keep him in check. Undercuts, fouls on alley-oops, hip bumps will come a la carte, but that’s not important when you’re 15 feet from the basket. This is where Chandler has found his niche, rolling perfectly as Karl Malone did on the high screen and finishing well above the rim. Dallas will have to figure out how to defend that screen on the right hand side, while the shooters (Peja/Mo Pete/Pargo/James) spread out and West takes his place on the left elbow.
Prediction : Hornets in 7
Rebuttal : Fraser MacK
Of all the series, this one looks like the most entertaining. Chris Paul does indeed look like the next best thing and Tyson Chandler, David West and Peja Stojakovic are all top 10 at their positions. That being said, would anyone be surprised if Dallas ends up pulling the upset, can you even call it an upset?
Truth be told, I think Dallas is a few pieces short. The Kidd trade decimated their depth, which wasn’t very good to begin with, plus the average age on the Mavs has to be something like 40 (Stackhouse, Juwan Howard, Kidd and EJ all have a lot of tread on their tires). I like the Mavs to keep it competitive in every game, but they won’t win more than 1 or 2 games. They’ll lose yet again in the first round to an arguably weaker team, then stupidly fire Avery Johnson, who’ll be snapped up in 1.2 milliseconds, and be back in the lotto by 2010.